Response of Han River Estuary Discharge to Hydrological Process Changes in the Tributary–Mainstem Confluence Zone

This study investigates the dynamic response mechanisms of discharge capacity in the Han River Estuary to hydrological process changes at the Yangtze–Han River confluence. By constructing a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model for the 265 km Xinglong–Hankou reach, we quantitatively decouple the synergistic effects of riverbed scouring (mean annual incision rate: 0.12 m) and Three Gorges Dam (TGD) operation through four orthogonal scenarios. Key findings reveal: (1) Riverbed incision dominates discharge variation (annual mean contribution >84%), enhancing flood conveyance efficiency with a peak flow increase of 21.3 m3/s during July–September; (2) TGD regulation exhibits spatiotemporal intermittency, contributing 25–36% during impoundment periods (September–October) by reducing Yangtze backwater effects; (3) Nonlinear interactions between drivers reconfigure flow paths—antagonism occurs at low confluence ratios (R < 0.15, e.g., Cd increases to 45 under TGD but decreases to 8 under incision), while synergy at high ratios (R > 0.25) reduces Hanchuan Station flow by 13.84 m3/s; (4) The 180–265 km confluence-proximal zone is identified as a sensitive area, where coupled drivers amplify water surface gradients to −1.41 × 10−3 m/km (2.3× upstream) and velocity increments to 0.0027 m/s. The proposed “Natural/Anthropogenic Dual-Stressor Framework” elucidates estuary discharge mechanisms under intensive human interference, providing critical insights for flood control and trans-basin water resource management in tide-free estuaries globally.