Water Flow Forecasting Model Based on Bidirectional Long- and Short-Term Memory and Attention Mechanism

Accurate forecasting of river water flow helps to warn of floods and droughts in advance, provides a basis for the rational allocation of water resources, and at the same time, offers important support for the safe operation of hydropower stations and water conservancy projects. Water flow is characterized by time series, but the existing models focus on the positive series when LSTM is applied, without considering the different contributions of the water flow series to the model at different moments. In order to solve this problem, this study proposes a river water flow prediction model, named AT-BiLSTM, which mainly consists of a bidirectional layer and an attention layer. The bidirectional layer is able to better capture the long-distance dependencies in the sequential data by combining the forward and backward information processing capabilities. In addition, the attention layer focuses on key parts and ignores irrelevant information when processing water flow data series. The effectiveness of the proposed method was validated against an actual dataset from the Shizuishan monitoring station on the Yellow River in China. The results confirmed that compared with the RNN model, the proposed model significantly reduced the MAE, MSE, and RMSE on the dataset by 27.16%, 42.01%, and 23.85%, respectively, providing the best predictive performance among the six compared models. Moreover, this attention mechanism enables the model to show good performance in 72 h (3 days) forecast, keeping the average prediction error below 6%. This implies that the proposed hybrid model could provide a decision base for river flow flood control and resource allocation.