Assessment of grain production levels and analysis of obstacle factors in China: a sustainable, stable and green perspective

Introduction Grain production is an essential component in food security and plays a key role in environmental sustainability. However, a significant gap remains in understanding the evolutionary trends of sustainable, stable, and green grain production, as well as the key obstacle factors in different regions hindering their achievement. This study contributes by refining the conceptualization of these three dimensions through the lens of coordinated development and by constructing a composite index system tailored to China’s agricultural context. Specifically, it offers a quantitative assessment of grain production performance for China, identifies structural and obstacle factors by regional spatiotemporal analysis. Methods This study explores the spatiotemporal evolution of grain production in China from 2000 to 2022, focusing on sustainable, stable and green levels, while identifying key obstacle factors at each stage. An index system was constructed based on three subsystems: sustainable, stable, and green production. The entropy-weighted TOPSIS method and the obstacle degree model were employed to assess production levels and determine critical constraints, while ArcGIS was used to visualize the spatial distribution across China’s nine major agricultural regions. Results The results reveal that Grain production followed a development trend of initial decline, slow recovery, and rapid growth, with significant differences in the subsystems. The sustainable production index showed an upward trend, while the stable production index fluctuated between decline and rise. The green production index experienced rapid decline, followed by stable fluctuations and subsequent rapid growth. Spatiotemporal analysis revealed a clear northward shift in comprehensive grain production levels, indicating a “northward expansion and southward retreat” pattern from 2000 to 2022. The dynamic evolution of obstacle factors from 2000 to 2022 reveals the deep contradictions and challenges faced by China’s sustainable and stable green grain production. Regionally, barriers have shifted from reliance on fiscal support to greater emphasis on local fiscal capacity and resource efficiency. Discussion Based on existing literature, theoretical analysis, and empirical results, this study proposes policy recommendations including improving yield per unit area and the innovation of scale operation, promoting integrated regional development through a high-quality grain industry model, and advancing digital empowerment and financial coordination to support the full production cycle. This study provides valuable insights for strengthening the foundation of national food security comprehensively and strategically.