Evaluating CHIRPS and ERA5 for Long-Term Runoff Modelling with SWAT in Alpine Headwaters

Reliable gridded precipitation products (GPPs) are essential for effective hydrological simulations, particularly in mountainous regions with limited ground-based observations. This study evaluates the performance of two widely used GPPs, CHIRPS and ERA5, in estimating precipitation and supporting runoff generation using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) across three headwater catchments (Sill, Drava and Isel) in the Austrian Alps from 1991 to 2018. The region’s complex topography and climatic variability present a rigorous test for GPP application. The evaluation methods combined point-to-point comparisons with gauge observations and assessments of generated runoff and runoff trends at annual, seasonal and monthly scales. CHIRPS showed a lower precipitation error (RMAE = 25%) and generated more consistent runoff results (RMAE = 12%), particularly in smaller catchments, whereas ERA5 showed higher spatial consistency but higher overall precipitation bias (RMAE = 37%). Although both datasets successfully reproduced the seasonal runoff regime, CHIRPS outperformed ERA5 in trend detection and monthly runoff estimates. Both GPPs systematically overestimate annual and seasonal precipitation amounts, especially at lower elevations and during the cold season. The results highlight the critical influence of GPP spatial resolution and its alignment with catchment morphology on model performance. While both products are viable alternatives to observed precipitation, CHIRPS is recommended for hydrological modelling in smaller, topographically complex alpine catchments due to its higher spatial resolution. Despite its higher precipitation bias, ERA5’s superior correlation with observations suggests strong potential for improved model performance if bias correction techniques are applied. The findings emphasize the importance of selecting GPPs based on the scale and geomorphological and climatic conditions of the study area.