Geopolitical Trade Shocks and Regional Logistics Realignment: The Supply Chain Impact of the US-China Trade War on Southeast Asia

The US-China trade war has triggered a structural realignment in global supply chains, catalyzing a surge in nearshoring activities to Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand. This study explores the micro-level logistics implications of this shift, focusing on port capacity constraints, infrastructure readiness, and foreign direct investment (FDI) trends. Through qualitative analysis of semi-structured interviews with logistics professionals, port officials, consultants, and policymakers, the research reveals that while tariff avoidance initially motivated relocation decisions, ultimate site selection hinged on the presence of mature industrial clusters and robust logistics ecosystems. Ports such as Cat Lai, Laem Chabang, and Port Klang have faced acute congestion, often driven more by hinterland connectivity bottlenecks and operational inefficiencies than berth limitations. Additionally, FDI in logistics has produced uneven development: while Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor and Malaysia’s tech-driven logistics parks thrive, other regions remain underfunded. Using Global Value Chain theory, Dunning’s eclectic paradigm, and the Port Competitiveness Model, the study frames these developments within a broader theoretical context, linking geopolitical shocks to localized logistics performance. Findings suggest that while Southeast Asia has capitalized on trade diversion, sustaining this momentum requires strategic infrastructure investment, regulatory harmonization, and coordinated policy responses. The study offers critical insights for both academic discourse and practical policy, shedding light on how regional logistics hubs can adapt to and benefit from evolving global trade dynamics.