The Relationship Between Population Shrinkage, Ageing, and New-Type Urbanization in Counties: The Case of Jilin Province, China

Counties are important vehicles for implementing the new-type urbanization strategy in China. However, some counties are experiencing population shrinkage and ageing, and the decline in the working-age population will constrain the process of new-type urbanization, but this has not received sufficient attention from academia and government policymakers. This paper takes Jilin Province, China, which is experiencing significant population shrinkage and ageing, as a case study to examine the spatial–temporal characteristics of population shrinkage and ageing at the county level and their relationship with new-type urbanization. This study found the following: (1) From 2014 to 2020, counties in Jilin Province experienced significant population shrinkage and ageing. (2) There is a certain correlation between population shrinkage and ageing. Ageing is the most obvious in counties with moderate shrinkage, followed by counties with mild shrinkage. (3) Although a new-type urbanization strategy has been implemented, the level of new-type urbanization in counties with population shrinkage and ageing is generally low and shows a trend of rising first and then falling. (4) Population shrinkage and ageing are positively correlated with new-type urbanization. The more severe the population shrinkage or ageing, the lower the level of new-type urbanization. It is necessary to take measures to alleviate the new-type urbanization dilemma in areas with population shrinkage and ageing, in order to promote sustainable regional development.