A Comprehensive Method for Calculating Maritime Radar Identification Probability Using 3D Marine Geographical Feature Models

To overcome the limitations of existing maritime radar identification analysis methods, which are only applicable to sea-skimming aircraft and fail to quantitatively calculate the probability of radar correctly identifying the target under electromagnetic influence from marine geographical features (MGFs), an advanced method is proposed for calculating the radar identification probability in marine areas using 3D MGF models. The method first established the radar identification criteria in 3D space, considering radar line of sight (LOS), radar target adhesion (RTA), and radar resolutions in range, azimuth angle, and elevation angle. It then comprehensively analyzed errors from both the aircraft and MGFs. Finally, the probability of a target at a specific marine location being correctly identified by radar was calculated using the Monte Carlo method. Theoretical derivations and simulation results demonstrated that: (1) Unlike existing methods limited to sea-skimming aircraft, the proposed method is applicable to aircraft at any altitude, better aligning with current aircraft performance and requirements; (2) While existing methods provide only a binary result of “identified” or “unidentified,” the proposed method offers a probability value. For the same marine location point Ta, the proposed method yields radar identification probabilities of 0.0877 for sea-skimming aircraft and 0.5887 for high-altitude aircraft, providing more precise and intuitive decision-making support for mission planners.