On-Orbit Life Prediction and Analysis of Triple-Junction Gallium Arsenide Solar Arrays for MEO Satellites

This paper focuses on the triple-junction gallium arsenide solar array of a MEO (Medium Earth Orbit) satellite that has been in orbit for 7 years. Through a combination of theoretical and data-driven methods, it conducts research on anti-radiation design verification and life prediction. This study integrates the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm into the full life cycle management of MEO satellite solar arrays, providing a solution that combines theory and engineering for the design of high-reliability energy systems. Based on semiconductor physics theory, this paper establishes an output current calculation model. By combining radiation attenuation factors obtained from ground experiments, it derives the theoretical current values for the initial orbit insertion and the end of life. Aiming at the limitations of traditional physical models in addressing solar performance degradation under complex radiation environments, this paper introduces an LSTM algorithm to deeply mine the high-density current telemetry data (approximately 30 min per point) accumulated over 7 years in orbit. By comparing the prediction accuracy of LSTM with traditional models such as Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Feedforward Neural Network (FNN), the significant advantage of LSTM in capturing the long-term attenuation trend of solar arrays is verified. This study integrates deep learning technology into the full life cycle management of solar arrays, constructs a closed-loop verification system of “theoretical modeling–data-driven intelligent prediction”, and provides a solution for the long-life and high-reliability operation of the energy system of MEO orbit satellites.