The two genotypes of secession. Explaining non-nationalist independence claims in federal-authoritarian regimes

In the literature on secession, there is broad agreement on the important role of ethno-nationalist mobilization. However, during the breakup of the formerly communist federations in 1989-1992, ethno-nationalist mobilization only partly explains the secessionist claims that occurred. This study highlights a second, non-nationalist type of secessionist claim in the context of transitions from authoritarian rule. It builds on the classical model of transitions, and extends it to federal-authoritarian states. According to this argument, sub-state government initiatives for regime change can turn into a federal conflict, and result in secessionist claims with no ethno-nationalist motives. Empirically, this article provides a congruence analysis, scrutinizing the timing of the declarations of sovereignty and independence of the 23 constituent republics of Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia, based on a secondary analysis of the literature. While the first republic-level governments to declare independence were dominated by ethno-nationalists, regime conflict played an important role in a second, possibly decisive stage of the dissolution of the three communist federations.