The Analysis of Cultural Convergence and Maritime Trade Between China and Saudi Arabia: Toda–Yamamoto Granger Causality

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between maritime trade and cultural convergence between China and Saudi Arabia, with a particular focus on the roles of creative goods and information and communication technology (ICT) exports as proxies for sociocultural integration. Utilizing quarterly data from 2012 to 2021, the analysis employs the Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality approach within a Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework. This methodology offers a robust means of testing causality without requiring data stationarity or cointegration, thereby reducing estimation bias and enhancing applicability to real-world economic data. The empirical model examines causal interactions among maritime trade, creative goods exports, ICT exports, and population, the latter serving as a control variable to account for demographic scale effects on trade dynamics. The results indicate statistically significant bidirectional causality between maritime trade and both creative goods and ICT exports, suggesting a reciprocal reinforcement between trade and cultural–technological exchange. In contrast, the relationship between maritime trade and population is found to be unidirectional. These findings underscore the strategic importance of cultural and technological flows in shaping maritime trade patterns. Furthermore, the study contextualizes its results within broader policy initiatives, notably China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, both of which aim to promote mutual economic diversification and regional integration. The study contributes to the literature on international trade and cultural economics by demonstrating how cultural convergence can serve as a catalyst for strengthening bilateral trade relations. Policy implications include the promotion of cultural and technological collaboration, investment in maritime infrastructure, and the incorporation of cultural dimensions into trade policy formulation.