A Quantitative Analysis of Predicting Economic Ripple Effects of Universal Tariff and Targeted Tariffs Applications from the U.S.

President Donald Trump promised universal tariffs as a presidential pledge, and now that he has taken office, the imposition of both universal and targeted tariffs on specific countries is having a wide range of effects on the U.S. and global economies. This study used the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to quantitatively analyze the economic impact of Trump's universal tariff policy and additional tariff strategies in certain countries. The study suggests the need for political analysis and explores the ripple effect of the tariffs on major trading partners. The analysis shows that the U.S. GDP has suffered the greatest decline due to the imposition of tariffs on certain countries, but the impact on inflation “is lower than that caused by universal tariffs. Accordingly, considering the inflation problem emphasized by President Trump, it is likely that a specific country's tariff strategy will be adopted. This study systematically evaluates the economic impact of U.S. tariff policies and offers policy insights regarding distortions in global supply chains and changes in trade patterns. It also contributes to providing practical information to policymakers and businesses by predicting the impact of tariff policies on the global economy and presenting response strategies.