Inequality in Employment Trajectories and their Consequences for Perceived Employment Insecurity and Work Satisfaction During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract This paper evaluates inequalities in employment trajectories during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany and their association with changes in perceived employment insecurity and work satisfaction in the short- and longer term. We contribute to existing research on employment changes and their effects during the pandemic in two ways. First, we not only focus on changes in the employment situation – remote work, short-time work, and furlough – but also consider the duration and volatility of these states by applying sequence analysis to high-frequency weekly data starting at the first lockdown. Second, we link these trajectories to changes in perceived employment insecurity and work satisfaction comparing pre-pandemic levels with those in summer 2020 and summer 2021 using change-scores. Data basis is the German Internet Panel (GIP) which provides bi-monthly panel data since 2012 and a special COVID-19 survey conducted weekly among the same respondents between March 20 and June 25, 2020 (‘Mannheim Corona Study’). Our results show social gradients in the employment risks and their volatility, which are partly mirrored in the consequences for perceived employment insecurity and work satisfaction. A general rise in perceived employment insecurity is observed in the short term, particularly among previous short-time workers. In the longer term, negative consequences are more evident in work satisfaction, especially among individuals who initially experienced continuous short-time work. Our results provide evidence on the scarring of short-time work and highlight the importance of analysing the dynamics of employment trajectories instead of focussing on single transitions.