Global alternatives of natural vegetation cover
Preserving and restoring terrestrial ecosystems is essential to preventing the decline of life on Earth. To guide global conservation efforts, we present a detailed counterfactual map showing Earth's natural tree, short vegetation, and bare ground cover. This map accounts for environmental filtering along with realistic scenarios of fire frequency and wildlife herbivory. The most likely scenario suggests 43% (5669 ± 74 Mha) of land could support trees, 39% (5183 ± 86 Mha) shrubs and grasses, and 18% (2352 ± 59 Mha) bare ground. Adjustments in fire and herbivory could shift a minimum of 675 Mha of land, stressing the importance of considering alternative outcomes when restoring a landscape. Our findings also suggest that adjustments in fire frequency and wildlife herbivory could have a greater impact on natural vegetation than expected climate changes by 2050, highlighting decision-makers' responsibility to guide conservation and restoration toward a sustainable and biodiverse future.
Authors
- Jean‐François Bastin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2602-7247)
- Nicolas Latte (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3822-315X)
- Eméline Sêssi Pélagie Assèdé (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7228-0641)
- Kouagou Raoul Sambiéni (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5062-0791)
- Ben Sparrow (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2566-1895)
- Grégory Mahy (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3094-8620)
- Danilo Mollicone (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2107-5741)
- Fernando T. Maestre (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7434-4856)
- Marc Peaucelle (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0324-4628)
- Anne J. Hoek van Dijke (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0354-8517)
- Marc Dufrêne (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5664-9955)
- Yannick Useni Sikuzani (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0508-1180)
- Christian Messier (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8728-5533)
- Thalès de Haulleville (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3767-3068)
- Yao Sadaiou Sabas Barima (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9840-6989)
- Fabien Quétier (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3767-0353)
- Claude García (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7351-0226)
- Thomas Ward Crowther (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5674-8913)
- Jan Bogaert (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4465-6442)
- Philippe Lejeune (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9987-9673)
- Simon Lhoest (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7237-3867)
- Yegor Tarelkin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7528-6267)
- Fabio Berzaghi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9139-8274)
- Jens‐Christian Svenning (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3415-0862)
- Samuel Bouchoms
- Timothée Besisa
- Hugo de Lame (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6598-5854)
- Pauline Depoortere
- Antoine Plumacker (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-9767-992X)
- Felana Nantenaina Ramalason (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1487-4027)
- Arthur Vander Linden (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5760-9608)
- Olivia Lovanirina Rakotondrasoa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-8752-7406)
Institutions
- Bern University of Applied Sciences (CH)
- University of Lubumbashi (CD)
- University of Antananarivo (MG)
- World Maritime University (SE)
- Université de Bordeaux (FR)
- University of Liège (BE)
- Université du Québec à Montréal (CA)
- Aarhus University (DK)
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech (BE)
- Committee on Climate Change (GB)
- Ghent University (BE)
- Université du Québec en Outaouais (CA)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR)
- Université de Parakou (BJ)
- Territoires (FR)
- Louis Bolk Instituut (NL)
- Université Jean Lorougnon Guédé (CI)
- Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (AU)
- The University of Adelaide (AU)
- University of Pretoria (ZA)
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (SA)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2025-07-16
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-61520-8
- Citations
- 2
- Primary Topic
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 2.21
Funders
- European Commission
- National Research Foundation
- Danmarks Grundforskningsfond
- Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology