Transformation of Ukraine’s export potential in the minds of viney: the strategic importance of agricultural trade with the EU

The article examines the transformational processes of Ukraine's export activities occurring under the influence of the full-scale war, with a particular focus on the agricultural sector and its strategic interaction with the European Union market. The key changes in the volume, geographical and commodity structure of Ukrainian exports are analyzed, and the role of the EU's trade policy in supporting Ukraine's economic resilience in the context of the war and for its subsequent post-war recovery is determined The aim of the article is to study the process of transformation of Ukraine's export potential in wartime, including an analysis of changes in its volume, geographical and commodity structure, with a special emphasis on the strategic role of agricultural trade with the European Union. The article aims to assess the effectiveness and significance of trade liberalization measures introduced by the European Union (autonomous trade measures, the "Solidarity Lanes" initiative) to compensate for losses caused by the destruction of infrastructure, the blockade of seaports, and the disruption of logistics chains. A separate task is the analysis of potential economic and social consequences for both Ukraine and the EU in the event of possible restrictions on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products by individual EU member states after the expiration of the current liberalization regime in June 2025. The study revealed potential risks associated with a possible revision of the free trade regime with the EU after June 2025 and pressure from individual countries regarding restrictions. The analysis showed that such restrictions would have extremely negative consequences for Ukraine's economy (reduction of income, financial instability, complication of recovery) and could also lead to price increases in the EU, deterioration of relations, and undermining unity in supporting Ukraine. The preservation of free trade is defined as strategically important for both parties, which will contribute to Ukraine's economic stability and global food security. Key words: export potential, agricultural export, agro-industrial complex (AIC), European Union (EU), trade relations, trade liberalization, logistics, transformation.