Land Use Changes and Their Impacts on Soil Erosion in a Fragile Ecosystem of the Ethiopian Highlands

Land cover changes have significant implications for ecosystem services, influencing agricultural productivity, soil stability, hydrological processes, and biodiversity. This study assesses the impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) change on soil erosion in the Upper Guder River catchment, Ethiopia, from 1986 to 2020. We analyzed Landsat imagery for three periods (1986, 2002, and 2020), achieving a classification accuracy of 89.21% and a kappa coefficient of 0.839. Using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model, we quantified spatial and temporal variations in soil erosion. Over the study period, cultivated land expanded from 51.89% to 78.40%, primarily at the expense of shrubland and grassland, which declined to 6.61% and 2.98%, respectively. Forest cover showed a modest decline, from 13.60% to 11.24%, suggesting a partial offset by reforestation efforts. Built-up areas nearly tripled, reflecting increasing anthropogenic pressure. Mean annual soil loss increased markedly from 107.63 to 172.85 t ha−1 yr−1, with cultivated land exhibiting the highest erosion rates (199.5 t ha−1 yr−1 in 2020). Severe erosion (>50 t ha−1 yr−1) was concentrated on steep slopes under intensive cultivation. These findings emphasize the urgent need for integrated land management strategies that stabilize erosion-prone landscapes while improving agricultural productivity and ecological resilience.