Aviation industry growth in a landlocked developing country: The case of Mongolia

• Air connectivity drives trade, growth, and tourism in landlocked Mongolia. • High-frequency routes face fierce competition and shrinking yields. • Policy reforms urged: efficiency, alliances, LCCs, and flexible operations. Improving air connectivity is crucial for landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) like Mongolia for the benefits of supporting trade flows, economic growth, and tourism. Analysing data from Mongolia’s international aviation markets (2014–2023), this study examines market dynamics shaping flight frequencies, airline competition, and ticket prices. Findings indicate that on routes where additional flights and seat capacity are introduced if air travel demands do not keep pace, airlines are forced to lower fares to fill seats and thereby suffer from a reduced yield. High-frequency routes, such as those to Beijing, Seoul, Istanbul, and Tokyo, experience intense competition and aggressive pricing, putting additional pressure on yield. In view of the overall inverse relationship between yield and flight frequency, airlines seem to prioritise profitability on certain routes by limiting flights to maintain airfare levels. Mongolia’s market has largely been dominated by full-service carriers (FSCs) with a limited presence of low-cost carriers (LCCs). To enhance air connectivity and industry growth, the Mongolian aviation industry may explore options such as (a) enhancing efficiency in the aviation sector to reduce operational costs; (b) facilitating strategic alliances or route-based cooperations with foreign airlines; (c) introducing more flexibility and freedom in airline operation, notably on seat capacity and route choices in the high and low seasons; and (d) allowing LCC growth on domestic and regional routes, including but not limited to low cost subsidiary of incumbent full service airline. The Mongolian government should also promote national and foreign network carrier services linking major international hub airports with Mongolia’s main airport in conjunction with efforts to boost international tourism and e-commerce. Practical insights for enhancing Mongolia’s aviation sector are discussed.