Perception and trends of climate change: assessing impacts on smallholder farmers and Agro-Pastoral communities in Northern Ethiopia

Climate change is significantly impacting smallholder farmers and agro-pastoral communities, particularly in developing countries. However, studies on their perceptions towards climate change are limited. Therefore, this study assessed the climate trends and the perception of smallholder farmers and agro-pastoral communities in two districts of Northern Ethiopia. This study utilized both climate (temperature and rainfall) data and household survey data to support the analysis. Climate trends were examined using the Mann-Kendall test, while community perceptions were assessed through Chi-square tests and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The Mann-Kendall test revealed significant temperature increase of 0.025 °C and 0.039 °C in Abala and Hintalo Wajirat respectively, while rainfall trends showed marginal significance at the 10% level (0.070 and 0.099). Perception data, assessed via Chi-square tests and PCA, indicated that 96% of Abala and 98% of Hintalo Wajirat farmers perceived climate change. Significant difference were found in the perceptions of natural versus anthropogenic causes of climate change between districts. Key perceived impacts of climate change included rising temperatures, declining rainfall, pest and disease outbreaks, and species loss. These findings highlight the need for targeted policy interventions to enhance local adaptation and climate resilience strategies.