Was the Resurrection a Conspiracy? A New Mathematical Approach

Abstract This article introduces a new method for evaluating the sincerity of the testimony of miracles. While others have emphasized the relevance of the number of those claiming to be witnesses of a miracle, how long the witnesses maintain their testimony has not yet been adequately appreciated. Building on David Grime’s method for evaluating conspiracy theories, I develop a mathematical model that incorporates both how many witnesses and how long they maintain their testimony to evaluate the sincerity of their testimony. I then apply the model to two case studies: Hume’s hypothetical example of the death and recovery of the Queen of England, and the resurrection of Jesus. This analysis demonstrates that, contrary to Hume’s assertion, the many witnesses who maintained their testimony for many years provide compelling evidence of the sincerity of their testimony.