Quantitative analysis of ice navigation risk: multi-scale study from the Baltic Sea region

Abstract This research employs an enhanced Polar Operation Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) and multi-scale empirical analysis methods to quantitatively evaluate the risks in icy region navigation. It emphasises the significant influence of spatial effects and external environmental factors on maritime accidents. Findings reveal that geographical location, environmental and ice conditions are crucial contributors to accidents. The models indicate that an increase in ports, traffic volume and sea ice density directly correlates with higher accident rates. Additionally, a novel risk estimation model is introduced, offering a more accurate and conservative assessment than current standards. This research enriches the understanding of maritime accidents in icy regions, and provides a robust framework for different navigation stages and conditions. The proposed strategies and model can effectively assist shipping companies in route planning and risk management to enhance maritime safety in icy regions.