Strategic Anxiety and Security Dilemma in the Indo-Pacific: A Defensive Realist Analysis of Australia–China Relations

This article explores the deterioration of security relations between Australia and China from the perspective of defensive realism, with a focus on the dynamics of security dilemmas. In the study, Australia's strategic shift has led to a feedback loop of misunderstanding, military escalation, and alliance dependence, particularly in the context of AUKUS, the South China Sea, and Taiwan (China). This article also emphasizes the limitations of defensive realism by integrating the perspective of ontological security theory, arguing that Australia's behavior is not only influenced by material power considerations, but also by identity anxiety and normative consistency with the Western dominated rule-based order. The report concludes by proposing institutional mechanisms, including military hotlines, transparency measures, and inclusive dialogue, as a way to manage strategic distrust and mitigate escalation.