Russia-Ukraine war has altered the pattern of carbon dioxide emissions from shipping in the Black Sea region

Recent geopolitical crises have reshaped global shipping patterns, profoundly impacting related carbon emissions. Here, we utilize automatic identification system data from March 2021 to February 2024 and the ship traffic emission assessment model to investigate changes in carbon dioxide emissions from shipping in the Black Sea region before and during the Russia-Ukraine war. We find that shipping carbon dioxide emissions in Ukraine’s Black Sea exclusive economic zone decreased by an average of 17.88% annually, while those in Romania’s and Turkey’s Black Sea exclusive economic zones increased by 36.30% and 16.08% annually, respectively. At the voyage level, shipping carbon dioxide emissions from maritime trade between Russia and the European Union obviously decreased, while those from maritime trade with certain Asian and Middle Eastern countries have obviously risen. The findings uncover the challenges to the climate change goal in the global shipping sector due to regional geopolitical crises. Carbon dioxide emissions from shipping in the Black Sea region decreased in Ukraine’s economic zone, and they increased in Romania’s and Turkey’s economic zones, from March 2021 to February 2024, according to an analysis that utilizes a ship emission assessment model.