The long-term suitability of agrivoltaics as a climate adaptation strategy in the southwestern United States

The semi-arid environment of the southwestern United States, coupled with rising temperatures and reducing water availability, is threatening the sustainability of agriculture. To sustain farming here, strategies that support agricultural systems in adapting to the changing climate are needed. In such environments, agrivoltaics create a microclimate that can reduce air temperature and increase water efficiency, potentially providing a promising adaptation solution. However, strategic and appropriate implementation requires understanding where these systems would be most beneficial. We evaluate land suitability for agrivoltaics across the southwest using spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis, which incorporates biophysical variables that relate to the potential microclimate benefits provided by agrivoltaics under current and future climate conditions. Results show 310,393 km 2 of the region is suitable for agrivoltaics, with 20,576 km 2 classified as most suitable under current conditions, increasing to 31,712 km 2 under 2080 conditions. Arizona, New Mexico, and California contain the largest area of most suitable land under all time periods, with Luna and Torrance counties, New Mexico, Cochise and Maricopa counties, Arizona, and Imperial County, California, consistently ranking as the most suitable counties. Suitability increases as climate change progresses, with New Mexico and California seeing the largest relative gains. 82.7 % of the region is found to be unsuitable, highlighting the need for careful site selection when considering agrivoltaic implementation. Despite this, our findings indicate the substantial potential for agrivoltaics to support agricultural systems in the southwestern U.S. adapt to mounting environmental pressures and establishes a foundational understanding of where these systems could be most beneficial. • First agrivoltaic suitability analysis to incorporate future climate projections. • Most suitable agrivoltaic land in Southwest U.S. increases 54 % under future climate conditions. • California and New Mexico show largest gains in suitability as climate changes. • Early adoption in moderately suitable areas could future-proof agricultural systems.