Clinical and Imaging Characteristics to Discriminate Between Complicated and Uncomplicated Acute Cholecystitis: A Regression Model and Decision Tree Analysis

<b>Background</b>: Acute complicated cholecystitis (ACC) is associated with prolonged hospitalization, increased morbidity, and higher mortality. However, objective imaging-based criteria to guide early clinical decision-making remain limited. This study aimed to develop a predictive scoring system integrating clinical characteristics, laboratory biomarkers, and computed tomography (CT) findings to facilitate the early identification of ACC in the emergency department (ED). <b>Methods</b>: We conducted a retrospective study at an urban tertiary care center in Taiwan, screening 729 patients who presented to the ED with suspected cholecystitis between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2020. Eligible patients included adults (≥18 years) with a confirmed diagnosis of acute cholecystitis based on the Tokyo Guidelines 2018 (TG18) and who were subsequently admitted for further management. Exclusion criteria included (a) the absence of contrast-enhanced CT imaging, (b) no hospital admission, (c) alternative final diagnosis, and (d) incomplete clinical data. A total of 390 patients met the inclusion criteria. Demographic data, laboratory results, and CT imaging features were analyzed. Logistic regression and decision tree analyses were used to construct predictive models. <b>Results</b>: Among the 390 included patients, 170 had mild, 170 had moderate, and 50 had severe cholecystitis. Key predictors of ACC included gangrenous changes, gallbladder wall attenuation > 80 Hounsfield units, CRP > 3 mg/dL, and WBC > 11,000/μL. A novel scoring system incorporating these variables demonstrated good diagnostic performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.775 and an optimal cutoff score of ≥2 points. Decision tree analysis similarly identified these four predictors as critical determinants in stratifying disease severity. <b>Conclusions</b>: This CT- and biomarker-based scoring system, alongside a decision tree model, provides a practical and robust tool for the early identification of complicated cholecystitis in the ED. Its implementation may enhance diagnostic accuracy and support timely clinical intervention.