Agriculture under pressure: anthropogenic flows and global risks

The article addresses the significant impact of human-driven factors – material, energy, demographic, and economic – on modern agriculture within a multipolar world. It highlights the relevance of anthropogenic flows in understanding the vulnerabilities of agricultural systems, particularly in the context of geopolitical instability, supply chain disruptions, and demographic shifts. The purpose of the article is to analyse how these flows influence agricultural resilience in Germany, France, Spain, and Russia from 2000 onward, using four analytical models: Material Flow Analysis (MFA), Demographic Flow Model (DFM), Supply Chain Vulnerability Model (SCVM), and Economic Impact of Sanctions Model (EISM). The methods involve quantitative analysis of resource use, migration patterns, supply chain risks, and economic impact of sanctions, based on data derived from FAOSTAT, Eurostat, and national reports. The results reveal varying degrees of vulnerability across the studied countries, with Germany and Spain heavily reliant on external inputs, France maintaining stability through energy efficiency, and Russia facing significant challenges due to sanctions and rural depopulation. The article concludes with policy recommendations towards enhance agricultural resilience, emphasizing diversification, sustainable practices, and local food sovereignty. Keywords: anthropogenic flows, agroecology, geopolitics, material flow analysis, Supply Chain Vulnerability