Assessment of agricultural vulnerability in the Sofia region, Bulgaria under climate change scenarios: a multi-model ensemble analysis based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)

Due to the intensification of global climate change, agricultural production faces significant challenges such as frequent extreme weather events, exacerbated water scarcity, and rising temperatures which pose significant threats to crop growth and food security. This study evaluates the vulnerability of agriculture in Bulgaria, mainly maize and wheat production in the capital city of Sofia, under climate change scenarios based on multi-model ensemble data from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). By analyzing the spatiotemporal trends of temperature and precipitation from 2025 to 2100, the study reveals that the Sofia region will experience a fluctuating upward trend in temperature and a fluctuating downward trend in precipitation. Precipitation is identified as the primary factor influencing grain yield, while the impact of temperature changes is relatively minor. The yields of maize and wheat are projected to decline across three future periods (2025–2050, 2050–2075, and 2075–2100), with the most rapid decline occurring between 2025 and 2050. The study proposes adaptive strategies such as strengthening water resource management and promoting climate-smart agriculture to enhance the resilience and sustainability of agricultural systems and ensure food security. Keywords: climate change, agricultural vulnerability, CMIP6, precipitation variability, grain yield