Evolutionary Game Analysis of Credit Supervision for Practitioners in the Water Conservancy Construction Market from the Perspective of Indirect Supervision

Credit supervision of practitioners in the water conservancy construction market, a vital pillar of national infrastructure development, significantly impacts project safety and the maintenance of order in the industry. From the perspective of indirect supervision, this study constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model involving government departments, enterprises, and practitioners to analyze the dynamic evolution mechanism of credit supervision. By examining the strategic interactions among the three parties under different regulatory scenarios, we identify key factors influencing the stable equilibrium of evolution and verify the theoretical conclusions through numerical simulations. The study yields several key insights. First, while government regulation and social supervision can substantially increase the likelihood of practitioners’ integrity, relying solely on administrative regulation has an efficiency limit. Second, the effectiveness of the reward and punishment mechanism of the direct manager plays a crucial leveraging role in credit evolution. Lastly, under differentiated regulatory strategies, high-credit practitioners respond more strongly to long-term cost optimization, while low-credit practitioners are more effectively deterred by short-term, high-intensity disciplinary actions. Based on these findings, this study proposes a systematic governance framework of “regulatory model innovation–corporate responsibility enhancement–social supervision deepening.” Unlike previous studies, this framework adopts a comprehensive approach from three dimensions: regulatory model innovation, corporate responsibility enhancement, and social supervision deepening. It offers a more holistic and systematic solution for refining the credit system in the water conservancy construction market, providing both theoretical support and practical approaches.