Application of Econometric Techniques to Analyze Selected Driving Forces and Regional Heterogeneity in the Recreational Fishery Industry Across 11 Coastal Areas in the Chinese Mainland from 2005 to 2023

With the advantages of industrial integration, China’s recreational fishery sector represents a new trajectory in the transformation of the fishery industry. Coastal regions possess abundant fishery resources and have favorable geographical conditions, offering natural advantages for developing recreational fishing. However, substantial variations can be observed among regions regarding their resource endowments and economic conditions, leading to diversity in the driving forces and paths of recreational fishery development. This study employs panel data for 11 coastal provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in the Chinese mainland from 2005 to 2023 to explore the driving forces and regional heterogeneity of recreational fishery development. This paper employs fixed-effects estimation and further incorporates a mediating-effect model to explore the role of market demand in shaping the development path of recreational fisheries. The results are as follows: (1) Natural resource endowments and market demand are key driving forces that promote growth in the output value of recreational fisheries. (2) There is heterogeneity in the driving forces across regions. In areas with richer resource endowments or lower economic development levels, recreational fishery growth relies more on natural resource-driven mechanisms, whereas in regions with weaker resource endowments or higher economic development levels, market demand plays a more dominant role. (3) Market demand drives recreational fishery growth through the expansion of the tertiary sector. This paper offers a valuable reference for policymakers seeking to allocate resources more efficiently, support balanced regional development, and formulate tailored development strategies in accordance with local conditions, thereby facilitating the sustainable and high-quality development of the recreational fishery industry in the Chinese mainland.