An Integrated Framework for Interprovincial Water Conflicts (IFIWC): A Case of Punjab and Sindh Water Conflicts in Pakistan

Existing frameworks for analyzing water conflicts often fail to capture the dynamic feedback among climate variability, power asymmetries, and diverse stakeholder behaviours, especially within intrastate contexts. This study proposes an Integrated Framework for Interprovincial Water Conflicts (IFIWC) in Pakistan to address the longstanding dispute between Punjab and Sindh provinces under escalating climate change pressures. Building on key insights from hydro-hegemony, political ecology, and environmental security approaches, the framework interlinks conflict profiling, causal drivers, actor analysis, and conflict dynamics. Notably, it incorporates an Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) approach to simulate emergent negotiation patterns and collective decision-making processes among competing provincial and societal actors. Furthermore, the framework embeds climate feedback loops, recognizing that climate change both amplifies and is influenced by conflict dynamics. Together, these elements provide a robust conceptual and practical basis for modelling water allocation scenarios and evaluating adaptive governance strategies for the Indus Basin. This approach offers new insights for policymakers and researchers seeking to manage interprovincial water disputes in an era of increasing climate stress.