MODELING AND FORECASTING THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEENFREIGHT TRANSPORTATION AND MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS INTHE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA: A MULTIVARIATE ECONOMETRIC ANDTIME SERIES APPROACH

This article presents a comprehensive econometric and time series analysis of freight transportation and its relationship with macroeconomic indicators in the Republic of Armenia. Using official statistical data from 2013 to 2023, the study evaluates how GDP, trade balance, logistics profitability, and domestic freight volumes interact within Armenia’s logistics system. The report employs Pearson correlation matrices, OLS regression, and ARIMAX forecasting techniques to uncover key economic linkages and estimate future freight volumes. The results show a strong correlation between GDP and trade turnover (r = 0.99), as well as a significant influence of domestic freight movement on economic growth. Regression modeling quantifies the individual effect of variables such as trade balance and transport profitability on GDP, with an explanatory power of 81% (R2 = 0.809). The ARIMAX model forecasts a gradual increase in freight volumes from 19 to 21.5 million tons between 2025 and 2028. While the forecast excludes certain non-quantifiable external factors, the report provides a reliable framework for infrastructure planning, economic policy, and supply chain optimization in Armenia's logistics sector under stable conditions.