Feasibility of Pavement Temperature as a Surrogate for Performance of Rigid Pavements

As time marches forward communities across the State of Minnesota are experiencing on average higher temperatures, and higher frequency of extreme storms with intense flooding from climate change. For example, from 1951 to 2012 the average temperature and annual precipitation in the Twin Cities has increased by 3.25°F and 5.5 inches, respectively. Over the period from 1970 to 2019 there were 11 recorded mega rain events (rains in which at least six inches fall over an area of at least 1,000-square miles) in Minnesota of which 8 have occurred since 2000. Changes in climatic conditions may impact pavement systems in Minnesota. MnROAD has been collecting a large amount of environmental and pavement performance data for close to 30 years and has built a substantial database. MnROAD data also includes detailed temperature data, including air temperature and pavement temperatures at multiple depths in many of the test sections as well as weather station data. Environmental factors (e.g., precipitation, temperature fluctuations, etc.) are becoming increasingly more important than traffic loading factors in limiting the overall life of pavements. In this research effort thermocouple (pavement system temperatures) and weather data within the MnROAD database is explored using data science methods to assess if pavement system temperature data can be used as an early indicator of future pavement performance in the context of climate change in Minnesota.