Spatiotemporal Variability of Forest Burning Characteristics in Siberia

Based on the long-term data series from 175 weather stations for 1981–2020, the present study examines the spatiotemporal variability of the indicators potentially determining the number and area of wildfires in Siberia (49°–79° N, 55°–165° E): duration of the fire season, heat and moisture availability (hydrothermal coefficient, HTC), and the number of days with thunderstorms and precipitation per year. The data for the last 10 years (2011–2020) were compared with the data for the 30-year period 1981–2010. A positive trend in the number of days with thunderstorms by 0.23–2.73 day/year, a decrease in HTC relative to the normal in some subregions of Siberia, an increase in the number of days with precipitation by 0.29–1.3 day/year and in the duration of the fire season by 0.12–1.18 day/year were revealed. In some subregions of Siberia, a further increase in the duration of the fire season by 20–35% during the next decade is expected. Using the GIS tools, the analyzed indicators are extrapolated for the entire territory of Siberia, and projections until 2030 are presented. The reliability level of the resulting estimates is 53–73%.