Understanding Uncertainty in CO2 Plume Migration: Improving Predictions of Geological Containment Risk

Summary Predicting the long-term migration and final state of the plume of CO2 plume during the early stages of storage projects is highly complex due to significant uncertainty in the subsurface environment. Managing these uncertainties is essential for assessing the potential risks of CO2 leakage beyond the storage complex and determining whether a site is suitable for long-term storage. Traditional modeling methods often fail to adequately capture these uncertainties, which may lead to overly optimistic or unnecessarily pessimistic conclusions, because uncertainties are guesstimated, rather than properly quantified. This could lead to good storage sites being abandoned, for no scientific good reason. And with negative financial implications. In this study, we employ a modified invasion percolation simulator, which provides faster results for CO2 migration.