Atlantic–Pacific winter warming as an early indicator of major hurricane activity over the North Atlantic

Abstract By leveraging Causal‐Effect Networks (CENs), this study identifies February sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Atlantic and North Pacific as critical predictors of seasonal major hurricane (MH) frequency in the North Atlantic. These anomalies provide robust indicators, enabling reliable hurricane forecasts as early as March, well ahead of the peak hurricane season. Our findings demonstrate that elevated Northern‐Hemisphere winter SSTs in the Atlantic and North Pacific create conditions in the main development region (MDR) that are highly favorable for hurricane development during the hurricane season. These conditions include increased low‐ and midlevel relative humidity, enhanced vorticity, elevated SSTs, and reduced vertical wind shear. By incorporating local (Atlantic) and remote (North Pacific) drivers, whose lagged influence shapes hurricane season conditions, our linear regression model achieves accuracy comparable to traditional models issued closer to the season. This work underscores the potential of combining causal analysis with statistical modeling to improve early‐season hurricane forecasts and strengthen resilience efforts.