Analysis of climate change impacts on Manila clam production and associated economic damage costs in South Korea

This study investigates the relationship between climate change and Manila clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) production in South Korea and assesses the resulting economic impacts through a comprehensive analysis. Using fixed effects panel regression models, the study evaluates key climate factors sea surface temperature, salinity, rainfall, and tidal flat area to quantify their effects on clam production across four major regions (Chungnam, Jeonnam, Jeonbuk, and Gyeongnam) from 2000 to 2022. Future production changes and associated economic losses are projected under Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), with adjustments to account for discrepancies between observed and predicted climate data. The findings indicate that Manila clam production will decline consistently across all SSP scenarios, with maximum total production reductions and associated long-term (2041 ~ 2050) economic losses reaching 29.2% and KRW 258.8 billion under SSP1-2.6, 37.9% and KRW 335.6 billion under SSP2-4.5, and 52.0% and KRW 460.7 billion under SSP5-8.5, respectively. Among the four regions, Jeonnam was identified as the most vulnerable, followed by Gyeongnam, Jeonbuk, and Chungnam, reflecting region-specific differences in exposure and adaptive capacity. These results emphasize the extent of economic damage even with mitigation efforts, underscoring the urgent need for adaptive strategies. The study highlights the importance of high-temperature-resistant clam strains, aquaculture techniques, and region-specific management policies to sustain the Manila clam industry. Such measures will be critical to mitigating economic losses and ensuring the long-term sustainability of this valuable fisheries sector in South Korea.