An integrated assessment of the 11th basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand and alternative power generation mix scenarios

The Korean government is faced with the dual challenges of ensuring a stable electricity supply and achieving substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions in the power sector. In response, the 11th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand, announced in February 2025, proposes to increase the share of carbon-free power sources to 71% by 2038. This study employs the Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM SNU) to simulate the projected emissions pathway under the current policy scenario and test whether the plan can meet Korea’s 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target for the power sector -a 45.9% reduction in GHG emissions from 2018 levels-and support deeper emissions cuts through2035. Furthermore, an alternative scenario (CoalOut HighRE), which phases out coal-fired power by 2035 and accelerates the deployment of renewable energy centered on offshore wind, is developed and analyzed. The results show that the current plan is unlikely to achieve the 2030 NDC target, whereas the alternative scenario can not only ensure reliable power supply but also achieve the 2030 NDC and reduce power sector GHG emissions by 83% by 2035. These findings demonstrate the feasibility of deep emissions reductions while maintaining a stable electricity supply under an ambitious coal phase-out and renewable energy expansion strategy. This highlights the importance of integrated planning for electricity transition and climate goals in guiding effective NDC implementation.