How Agricultural Innovation Talents Influence County-Level Industrial Structure Upgrading: A Knowledge-Empowerment Perspective

Upgrading the industrial structure is an essential step for economic growth and the transformation of old and new development drivers. Counties situated at the rural–urban interface hold a comparative advantage in industrial upgrading compared to cities, converting agricultural resource dividends into economic value. However, whether agricultural innovation talent can facilitate this process requires further investigation. Based on a sample of 1771 Chinese counties, this study employs a quasi-natural experiment using China’s “World-Class Disciplines” construction program in agriculture and establishes a difference-in-differences (DID) model to examine the impact of agricultural innovation talent on county-level industrial structure upgrading. The results show that agricultural innovation talent significantly promotes industrial upgrading, with this effect being more pronounced in counties with smaller urban–rural income gaps, greater household savings, and higher levels of industrial sophistication. Spatial spillover effects are also evident, indicating regional knowledge diffusion. Knowledge empowerment emerges as the core mechanism: agricultural innovation talent drives industrial convergence, responds to supply–demand dynamics, and integrates digital and intelligent elements through knowledge creation, dissemination, and application, thereby supporting county-level industrial upgrading. The findings highlight the necessity of establishing world-class agricultural research and talent incubation platforms, particularly emphasizing the supportive role of universities and the knowledge-driven contributions of agricultural innovation talents to county development.