Multiple regression analysis of durian mortality during drought induced by saline intrusion and yield determinants in the Vietnam Mekong Delta

Durian is one of the most economically important fruit crops in Vietnam, yet its productivity was severely impacted by the 2020 drought caused by saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta. This extreme event underscored the urgent need to understand factors influencing both drought resilience and crop yield. Limited research exists on how farm-level practices interact with environmental stressors in durian cultivation, creating a gap in evidence-based adaptation strategies. To address this, a cross-sectional study was conducted in 2022–2023 across 60 durian farms in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. The study aimed to identify key agronomic and environmental factors affecting durian mortality during the 2020 drought and yield performance during the recovery period. Multiple linear regression and non-linear regression models were employed to identify the predictors of durian mortality during the drought and subsequent yield performance. The regression model revealed a strong correlation between durian mortality rate and its predictors (R² = 0.827). Results indicated that for every 1% increase in the proportion of the Monthong variety, durian mortality under drought conditions increased by 0.36% (95% CI: 0.22–0.49). Furthermore, durian yield following the drought was found to be negatively correlated with irrigation volume. These findings lay the foundation for developing drought coping strategies in durian orchards, highlighting the need for further research on optimising variety selection, irrigation practices, and fertilisation management