Carbon Emission Analysis of EV-penetrated Power Systems

The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) challenges power system operations, particularly in managing uncertain charging behavior. Achieving carbon neutrality requires considering EV charging emissions and implementing effective reduction strategies in power systems. This paper proposes a stochastic model based on a non-homogeneous Markov chain to describe EV charging behavior, incorporating traffic conditions and regional transitions. The model accounts for key factors such as state of charge (SoC) and drivers’ charging preferences influenced by mobility patterns. By modeling traffic-driven transitions between charging stations, it provides a realistic representation of EV charging demand. Additionally, a carbon emission flow (CEF) model based on power flow analysis quantifies carbon emissions at each power system node due to EV charging. These models offer insights for optimizing charging infrastructure, improving load and emission forecasting, and enhancing grid stability amid increasing EV adoption. A case study on the IEEE 33-bus system demonstrates the model’s effectiveness.