Forecast of Seismic and Geodynamic Settings before and after the Earthquake of March 28, 2025, M7.7, in Myanmar
This work presents a comprehensive analysis of the seismic and geodynamic settings before and after the March 28, 2025, M7.7 earthquake in Myanmar. The results of a global test of the M8 algorithm for forecast of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.5 and greater for this region were considered. It was analyzed how much the earthquake was expected in terms of long-term seismic hazard based on seismicity data alone. A geodynamic analysis was performed to assess the seismogenic potential of the Sagaing Fault before and after the earthquake. The risk of aftershocks was assessed. A model of the earthquake source was constructed to test the extremely fast rupture and to interpret the anomalously large length in the US Geological Survey model.
Authors
- S. D. Matochkina
- Anastasia Nekrasova (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1639-1088)
- I. A. Vorobieva (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1993-2433)
- С. В. Баранов (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1960-6120)
- I. S. Vladimirova (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7301-7183)
- Г. М. Стеблов (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9157-8099)
- V. G. Kossobokov (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3505-7803)
- П. Н. Шебалин (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3361-3773)
- F. E. Vinberg
- A. I. Filippova (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9793-1685)
- А. С. Фомочкина (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8930-0883)
- К. V. Krushelnitskii (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-1638-0688)
Institutions
- Institute of Oceanology. PP Shirshov Russian Academy of Sciences (RU)
- Geophysical Survey (RU)
- Polar Geophysical Institute (RU)
- Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics (RU)
- Kola Science Centre (RU)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Doklady Earth Sciences
- Published
- 2025-07-14
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1134/s1028334x25607436
- Primary Topic
- earthquake and tectonic studies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00