Environmental and Social Benefits of Urban Parking Space Shortages Mitigation Management Model: A System Dynamics and Nudge Approach

With the growth of the urban population and economic level, the issue of urban parking space shortages (UPSSs) has assumed growing prominence. This persistent issue not only exacerbates traffic congestion but also contributes to environmental pollution, highlighting the need for system-oriented mitigation strategies. First, an algorithm for mitigating UPSSs based on nudge theory was constructed, in order to determine how the nudge strategies work. Second, nudge tools, including gain disclosure, salience, and outcome notification, were integrated to construct a mitigation model for UPSSs, which synthesizes nudge theory, the model of self-regulatory processes involved in behavioral change, and system dynamics (NT-SPBC-SD theory). Finally, four scenarios of natural development, guide adjustment, balanced regulation, and enhanced change were simulated. The findings of this study are as follows: (1) The UPSS mitigation had multiple overlapping effects and critical point effects, and the nudge strategy gradually decayed or even rebounded over time. (2) Under the enhanced change scenario, the degree of UPSSs, the amount of illegal parking, and CO2 emissions from civil vehicles decreased by 21.2%, 6.93%, and 14.54%, respectively. (3) After quantitative comparisons, the balanced regulation scenario with lower implementation costs instead demonstrated superior overall performance. The results support subsequent research and guide the enhancement of urban parking management policies to advance urban sustainability.