Mapping Complexity: Refugee Students’ Participation and Retention in Education Through Community-Based System Dynamics

Global refugee flows’ increasing scale and complexity pose significant challenges to national education systems. Turkey, hosting one of the largest populations of refugees and individuals under temporary protection, faces unique pressures in ensuring equitable educational access for refugee students. Addressing these challenges requires a shift from linear, fragmented interventions toward holistic, systemic approaches. This study applies a Community-Based System Dynamics (CBSD) methodology to explore the systemic barriers affecting refugee students’ participation in education. Through structured Group Model Building workshops involving teachers, administrators, and Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) representatives, a causal loop diagram (CLD) was collaboratively developed to capture the feedback mechanisms and interdependencies sustaining educational inequalities. Five thematic subsystems emerged: language and academic integration, economic and family dynamics, psychosocial health and trauma, institutional access and legal barriers, and social cohesion and discrimination. The analysis reveals how structural constraints, social dynamics, and individual behaviors interact to perpetuate exclusion or facilitate integration. This study identifies critical feedback loops and leverage points and provides actionable insights for policymakers and practitioners seeking to design sustainable, systems-informed interventions. Our findings emphasize the importance of participatory modeling in addressing complex societal challenges and contribute to advancing systems thinking in refugee education.