Impacts of COVID-19-Induced Human Mobility Changes on Global Wildfire Activity

Wildfires critically affect ecosystems, carbon cycles, and public health. COVID-19 restrictions provided a unique opportunity to study human activity’s role in wildfire regimes. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of pandemic-induced wildfire regime changes across global fire-prone regions. Using MODIS data (2010–2022), we analyzed fire patterns during the pandemic (2020–2022) against pre-pandemic baselines. Key findings include: (a) A 22% global decline in wildfire hotspots during 2020–2022 compared to 2015–2019, with the most pronounced reduction occurring in 2022; (b) Contrasting regional trends: reduced fire activity in tropical zones versus intensified burning in boreal regions; (c) Stark national disparities, exemplified by Russia’s net increase of 59,990 hotspots versus Australia’s decrease of 60,380 in 2020; (d) Seasonal shifts characterized by December declines linked to mobility restrictions, while northern summer fires persisted due to climate-driven factors. Notably, although climatic factors predominantly govern fire regimes in northern latitudes, anthropogenic ignition sources such as agricultural burning and accidental fires substantially contribute to both fire incidence and associated emissions. The pandemic period demonstrated that while human activity restrictions reduced ignition sources in tropical regions, fire activity in boreal ecosystems during these years exhibited persistent correlations with climatic variables, reinforcing climate’s pivotal—though not exclusive—role in shaping fire regimes. This underscores the need for integrated wildfire management strategies that address both human and climatic factors through regionally tailored approaches. Future research should explore long-term shifts and adaptive management frameworks.