Historical and projected evolutions of glaciers in response to climate change in the Muzart River basin, Central Asia

The phenomenon of global warming has been observed to accelerate the retreat of glaciers around the world. In this study, remote sensing data were utilized to analyze glacial changes in the Muzart River basin of Central Asia spanning the period 1976–2022, and predictive models were employed to project future glacier dynamics. In 2022, a total of 320 glaciers were identified within the basin, covering an area of 1100.73 km2. Of the total glacier area, 102.99 km2 were covered by debris, representing approximately 9.36% of the total glacier area. The glacier area exhibited a net reduction from 1339.22 km2 in 1976–1100.73 km2 in 2022. Debris-covered areas were found to inhibit glacier retreat, with the annual percentage area change in the Muzart River basin being −0.39%/a, which is lower than previously reported rates in most Central Asian basins. Since the year 2000, the retreat of glaciers has accelerated. Between the years 1976 and 2022, the debris cover of the glaciers grew by 0.74%/a. The ensemble mean of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios projects a 41% reduction in glacier area and 65% volume loss across the watershed during 2020–2100.