Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Using Deep Learning: A Case Study in Greece with RNN, LSTM, and GRU Networks

The increasing volatility in energy markets, particularly in Greece where electricity costs reached a peak of 236 EUR/MWh in 2022, underscores the urgent need for accurate short-term load forecasting models. In this study, the application of deep learning techniques, specifically Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), to forecast hourly electricity demand is investigated. The proposed models were trained on historical load data from the Greek power system spanning the years 2013 to 2016. Various deep learning architectures were implemented and their forecasting performances using statistical metrics such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) were evaluated. The experiments utilized multiple time horizons (1 h, 2 h, 24 h) and input sequence lengths (6 h to 168 h) to assess model accuracy and robustness. The best performing GRU model achieved an RMSE of 83.2 MWh and a MAPE of 1.17% for 1 h ahead forecasting, outperforming both LSTM and RNN in terms of both accuracy and computational efficiency. The predicted values were integrated into a dynamic Power BI dashboard, to enable real-time visualization and decision support. These findings demonstrate the potential of deep learning architectures, particularly GRUs, for operational load forecasting and their applicability to intelligent energy systems in a market-strained environment.