East Asian aerosol cleanup has likely contributed to the recent acceleration in global warming
Abstract Global surface warming has accelerated since around 2010, relative to the preceding half century 1–3 . This has coincided with East Asian efforts to reduce air pollution through restricted atmospheric aerosol and precursor emissions 4,5 . A direct link between the two has, however, not yet been established. Here we show, using a large set of simulations from eight Earth System Models, how a time-evolving 75% reduction in East Asian sulfate emissions partially unmasks greenhouse gas-driven warming and influences the spatial pattern of surface temperature change. We find a rapidly evolving global, annual mean warming of 0.07 ± 0.05 °C, sufficient to be a main driver of the uptick in global warming rate since 2010. We also find North-Pacific warming and a top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance that are qualitatively consistent with recent observations. East Asian aerosol cleanup is thus likely a key contributor to recent global warming acceleration and to Pacific warming trends.
Authors
- Naga Oshima (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8451-2411)
- Pierre Nabat (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7034-638X)
- B. H. Samset (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8013-1833)
- James M. Keeble (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2714-1084)
- Toshihiko Takemura (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2859-6067)
- Marianne T. Lund (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9911-4160)
- Anna Lewinschal
- Paul J. Kushner (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6404-4518)
- Risto Makkonen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8961-3393)
- Paul T. Griffiths (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1089-340X)
- Joonas Merikanto (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1145-2569)
- Declan O’Donnell (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2700-471X)
- Daniel M. Westervelt (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0806-9961)
- Luke Fraser-Leach (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9452-5528)
- Kostas Tsigaridis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5328-819X)
- Laura J. Wilcox (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493)
- Steven T. Rumbold (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8138-4541)
- Annica M. L. Ekman (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5940-2114)
- Senour Ahmadi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2754-4820)
- Tsuyoshi Koshiro (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2971-7446)
- Camilla W. Stjern (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3608-9468)
- Robert J. Allen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1616-9719)
- Larissa Narazenko
- Maxwell T. Elling
Institutions
- University of California, Riverside (US)
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
- Finnish Meteorological Institute (FI)
- Kyushu University (JP)
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US)
- Stockholm University (SE)
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US)
- University of Toronto (CA)
- University of Colorado Boulder (US)
- Japan Meteorological Agency (JP)
- University of Bristol (GB)
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (FR)
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO)
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (GB)
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research (SE)
- Meteorological Research Institute (JP)
- Lancaster University (GB)
- University of Reading (GB)
- Columbia University (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Communications Earth & Environment
- Published
- 2025-07-14
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02527-3
- Citations
- 14
- Primary Topic
- Climate variability and models
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 15.47
Funders
- Norges Forskningsråd