Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Spread of COVID-19 in Bahia, Brazil: A Cluster-Based Study, 2020–2022

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic progressed unevenly across the 417 municipalities of Bahia, Brazil. Pinpointing where and when risk peaked is vital for preparing for future emergencies. Methods: We performed an ecological, spatiotemporal study using COVID-19-confirmed cases in Bahia, Brazil, from January 2020 to December 2022. A discrete Poisson space–time scan in SaTScan-identified clusters. For each cluster, we calculated relative risk (RR) and Log Likelihood Ratio, considering p < 0.05 as significant. Results: A total of 33 clusters were detected; 25 statistically significant. The largest cluster (164 municipalities; May 2020–June 2021) comprised 702,720 observed versus 338,822 expected cases (RR = 2.8). Two overlapping large clusters (185 and 136 municipalities) during January–February 2022—coinciding with Omicron circulation—showed RR > 2.0. Localized clusters reached RR > 3.0. Spatially, risk concentrated in the south, southwest, and east of the state, with isolated countryside outbreaks. Conclusions: The heterogeneous spatiotemporal dynamics of COVID-19 in Bahia underscore the value of cluster detection for targeted surveillance and resource allocation. We recommend employing statistical techniques for early detection and control, as well as conducting further studies on socioeconomic and behavioral factors.