At-Site Flood Frequency Analysis: EvaluatingSome Candidate Probability Models

The article presents flood frequency modeling of the Sutlej River's gauging sites located in Pakistan.The objective is to search for the most cogent mix of probability distribution and parameter estimation approach for each site separately.Different probability distributions that have been recommended in the literature are fitted for modeling maximum annual water discharge.Separately for each site, the parameters of the competing probability distributions are estimated through different estimation strategies.Different compounds of distributions and estimation methods are compared for each site through seven different performance metrics, and the most plausible compound is recommended for that particular gauging station.Results from ranking different models revealed that the generalized Pareto distribution estimated through the weighted least squares method is most appropriate for both sites considered for analysis.Finally, based on the selected blend of distribution and estimation method, an estimate of annual maximum flow, along with 95% parametric bootstrap confidence intervals, is provided for different return years.