Study on the Evolution and Predictive for Coordinated Development of Regional Water Resources, Economic Society, and Ecological Environment

Water resources are strategic resources that support regional economic social development and maintain the health and stability of ecosystems. This study revealed the evolution of the coordinated development of China’s water resources–economic society–ecological environment system based on the coordination degree mode. The research was conducted by integrating machine learning with traditional mathematical methods; by setting up the status quo development scenario, water resources priority scenario, economic society priority scenario, ecological environment priority scenario and balanced development scenario; and by using the Holt exponential smoothing–feedforward neural network prediction model, the coordinated development trends under different scenarios were predicted. The results showed that, analyzed from the perspective of the coordinated evolution type of the dual systems, the dominant development system during the study period gradually transformed from water resources–economic society to water resources–ecological environment. For the coordinated development of the complex system, the coordination degree showed “stepped leap—resilient fluctuation (from 0.7242 to 0.8238)”, and “better in the southeast than in the northwest, with significant advantages in the coast”. The most significant increase in the coordination degrees were observed in the balanced development scenario and economic society priority scenarios, where it increased by an average of around 5%, confirming the effective contribution of stable economic and social development to the level of coordination. This study provides theoretical support and practical guidance for regional water resources management.