A Simplified Sigmoid-RH Model for Evapotranspiration Estimation Across Mainland China from 2001 to 2018

Accurate terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) estimation is crucial for understanding land–atmosphere interactions, evaluating ecosystem functions, and supporting water resource management, particularly across climatically diverse regions. To address the limitations of traditional ET models, we propose a simple yet robust Sigmoid-RH model that characterizes the nonlinear relationship between relative humidity and ET. Unlike conventional approaches such as the Penman–Monteith or Priestley–Taylor models, the Sigmoid-RH model requires fewer inputs and is better suited for large-scale applications where data availability is limited. In this study, we applied the Sigmoid-RH model to estimate ET over mainland China from 2001 to 2018 by using satellite remote sensing and meteorological reanalysis data. Key driving inputs included air temperature (Ta), net radiation (Rn), relative humidity (RH), and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), all of which are readily available from public datasets. Validation at 20 flux tower sites showed strong performance, with R-square (R2) ranging from 0.26 to 0.93, Root Mean Squard Error (RMSE) from 0.5 to 1.3 mm/day, and Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) from 0.16 to 0.91. The model performed best in mixed forests (KGE = 0.90) and weakest in shrublands (KGE = 0.27). Spatially, ET shows a clear increasing trend from northwest to southeast, closely aligned with climatic zones, with national mean annual ET of 560 mm/yr, ranging from less than 200 mm/yr in arid zones to over 1100 mm/yr in the humid south. Seasonally, ET peaked in summer due to monsoonal rainfall and vegetation growth, and was lowest in winter. Temporally, ET declined from 2001 to 2009 but increased from 2009 to 2018, influenced by changes in precipitation and NDVI. These findings confirm the applicability of the Sigmoid-RH model and highlight the importance of hydrothermal conditions and vegetation dynamics in regulating ET. By improving the accuracy and scalability of ET estimation, this model can provide practical implications for drought early warning systems, forest ecosystem management, and agricultural irrigation planning under changing climate conditions.