Data-driven ERP-BPMS model for public utilities’ crisis resilience

Public utility enterprises (PUEs) increasingly operate in volatile environments characterized by geopolitical tensions, infrastructure disruptions, and workforce mobilization, all threatening essential services. This study proposes a hybrid risk management model integrating Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) and Business Process Management Systems (BPMS) with heuristic decision-making and predictive analytics. Using a mixed-methods approach, we analyzed key performance indicators (KPIs) – including response times, resource utilization, and continuity – extracted from BOS CIS at Mastergaz (a Ukrainian utility). Pre- and post-integration comparisons showed a 50% reduction in response times, 20% lower logistical costs, and continuity above 90%. A qualitative thematic analysis of 15 interviews confirmed that improved transparency, preparedness, and decentralized decision-making aligned with these KPI gains. Scenario-based simulations (including Monte Carlo) validated the model under infrastructure loss and workforce shortages. These integrated findings support the hypothesis that an ERP-BPMS integrated model grounded in both quantitative and qualitative metrics enhances agility, cost-effectiveness, and resilience. This framework offers utility leaders a data-driven, adaptable tool for proactive crisis management across diverse scenarios.